Jobs Report Dominates Holiday-Shortened Week

By Kathleen Madigan

Investors and economy watchers will have many reports to digest in the coming week. The main course will be Friday?s employment report, served up after U.S. financial markets close Thursday to observe Independence Day.

The payrolls report has been a focus not just for what it says about the state of the economy but also for what it suggests about future Federal Reserve policy decisions. Stronger job growth would probably nudge the Fed closer to discussing tapering its bond-buying program.

Economists don?t think ?stronger? will describe the June employment numbers, which should allay taper fears. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expects nonfarm payrolls grew by 155,000 slots in June, less than the 175,000 slots added in May.

The June unemployment rate is forecast to slip to 7.5% from 7.6% in May.

Two readings on June business activity are also on tap for the trading week ending July 5. The Institute for Supply Management will release its factory survey Monday. Economists think the top-line purchasing managers? index will increase to 50.0 from 49.0. The 50 mark would mean manufacturing is in neutral. A reading below 50 indicates contraction, and a reading above means expansion.

The ISM?s nonmanufacturing report is on the calendar for Wednesday. The median forecast calls for a June PMI of 54.0, compared with 53.7 in May.

Another June data point will be vehicle sales. Auto makers will report sales Tuesday. Economists think car buying picked up to an annual rate of 15.5 million, from 15.2 million in May.

 
  DATE     TIME  RELEASE                PERIOD  CONSENSUS  PREVIOUS 
           (ET) 
 Monday    1000  ISM Mfg PMI             Jun     50.0  (12)  49.0 
           1000  Construction Spending   May     +0.6% (10)  +0.4% 
 Tuesday   1000  Factory Orders          May     +2.0% (9)   +1.0% 
            N/A  Vehicle Sales           Jun     15.5mln (9) 15.2mln 
 Wednesday 0815  ADP Jobs Svy            Jun     +160K (7)   +135K 
           0830  Jobless Claims         Jun 29   350K  (8)   346K 
           0830  US Trade Deficit        May     $40.3B (12) $40.3B 
           1000  ISM Non-Mfg PMI         Jun     54.0  (11)  53.7 
 Friday    0830  Nonfarm Payrolls        Jun     +155K (13)  +175K 
           0830  Unemployment Rate       Jun     7.5%  (13)  7.6% 
           0830  Avg Hrly Wages          Jun     +0.2% (11)  Unch 
 
   (Figures in parentheses refer to number of economists surveyed.)

Source: http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/06/30/jobs-report-dominates-holiday-shortened-week/?mod=WSJBlog

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